This week on Off The Charts our crew made a dozen over-under win total predictions, drafting them over the course of just under an hour. Their reasoning was built around a number of factors statistical and otherwise, including our own version of a win total model.

Their initial picks were ...

Bryce Rossler- Vikings over 8.5.

Our win projection model had the Vikings at 10.5 wins and the consensus was that this was reasonable.

"I think the floor has generally been pretty high for Kevin O'Connell teams. Last year this was a defense that was top five in pass defense EPA per play. They get Kyler Murray. Their schedule is pretty easy. They have the Dolphins and the Jets and the hapless NFC South."

Alex Vigderman - Falcons over 7

There were some jeers from the others, but Alex was unmoved. Our projection model had the Falcons with 10.5 wins.

"The strength of schedule is great for them. I think there's a lot of talent around the quarterback that mitigates the quality of the quarterback. I would be surprised if they get double-digits wins but I think over is reasonable."

Matt Manocherian- Chargers over 9.5

This one actually went against our model, which projects them for 8 wins this season.

"I'm a big fan of Justin Herbert. I'm a big fan of Mike McDaniel. I love the idea of those tackles coming back healthy this year. There is a possibility of a slight step back on defense with the coaching change on that side of the ball.

James Weaver- Bears under 9.5

The host of our podcast followed our win total model, which had them at 8.5 wins.

"They didn't add much on defense to improve that unit. They were 24th in pressure rate last year. That's pretty low for a lot of the offenses you're gonna be playing in your own division, the Packers, the Lions, the Vikings. You're gonna have to get after the quarterback a little bit. From an offensive perspective, there's weapons galore, but I think the bottom can fall out a little bit on (Caleb Williams) game-to-game and I'm down on this Bears unit as a whole."

To hear the rest of the predictions, check out the full episode at the link below.

The 2026 NFL Draft Website has scouting reports for more than 400 of the top players. With that, we’ve got ratings and rankings. It’s basically everything a GM would want to know about the NFL’s top rookies heading into the 2026 season (we’ll be getting to the 2027 Draft at a later date).

Our statistical information package includes Total Points, our proprietary metric that values everything that happens on the field, as well as position-specific performance data in the form of raw totals, averages, and percentile rankings. And we explain our stats in our glossary.

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The Rays and Their Defensive Positioning Are Racking Up Runs Saved

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Todd Bowles Wants the Bucs to Make a Major Change on Defense

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5 Bold Predictions for the NFL Season

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On Off the Charts, members of the R&D team, and special guests dig into statistical insights, tactical analysis, and personal opinions, aimed at providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the week's key matchups and the intricacies of the sport. On The SIS Baseball Podcast, we interview current players and coaches about defensive excellence and review the latest baseball news.

The FieldingBible.com website is a great resource for your defensive stat needs. It features player and team stats, Defensive Runs Saved leaderboards, and more. Be sure to look for The Fielding Bible Awards come late October 2026.